Complexity Blindness

Is the idea of using different strategies for different levels of complexity new to you?  On reflection, I've had remarkably few conversations with clients about complexity-based approaches to projects over the last 20 years. The idea itself is not new.  I've come to the conclusion that there is a widespread phenomenon we might call "simplicity bias" - the desire to see a situation as simpler than it is.  I'd like to suggest some evidence for this assertion:

• The use of simplifying metaphors
• The use of simplifying assumptions
• The simplification of news stories by journalists (the Monomyth again)
• The need to simplify messages for senior executives to win their confidence (they are surely able to deal with complicated messages to have risen to that position!)
• The insistence on applying Best Practises despite their widespread failure
• The insistence of placing the blame on an individual when disasters happen, rather than recognising the systemic causes.

(I admit that you could, alternatively, level the accusation that consultants have "complexity bias" - the desire to make a situation appear more complex than it is, but since I am also arguing that experts are not better at changing organisational systems when they are complex and chaotic, where is the pay-off?)

If we habitually understate complexity, then we must be overstating the effectiveness of competence and expertise.  We must be overstating our ability to plan project activities.  We must also be taking a much bigger risk with large development projects than we might anticipate.  This is the illusion of control.

— Philip Greenwood

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